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Football Predictions Over 2.5 Goals — Over/Under Tips

Over/Under 2.5 asks a single question: three goals or more? The probability comes from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline grid behind every other number here, so it can never disagree with our correct-score or BTTS pages. No bookmaker price is blended in: this is the model’s own view.

Fixtures priced 56 with a published analysis page · 51 more later this season
Kicking off today 0 of those fixtures, UTC date
Average probability 70% model probability of the selection we name
Strongest selection 91% highest probability in this market

Market picks

56 fixtures with a published Over/Under number — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more are scheduled and get a page as they approach.

Fixtures with our Over/Under selection and its model probability
Match League SelectionOur prob Conf.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.GladbachBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals77% A
Torino vs MonzaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals62% A
Brest vs NiceLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals63% A
Alaves vs MalagaLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals51% A
Ipswich vs Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals75% A
Aston Villa vs Manchester CityPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals84% A
Rayo Vallecano vs ElcheLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals60% A
Cagliari vs BolognaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals66% A
Como vs SassuoloSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals84% A
Mainz 05 vs Werder BremenBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals75% A
Augsburg vs Union BerlinBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals81% A
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV ElversbergBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals79% B
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SVBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals61% B
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04BundesligaOur call: Under 2.5 goals Bundesliga Under 2.5 goals50% B
Arsenal vs EvertonPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals60% A
Coventry vs FulhamPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals69% A
Racing Santander vs EspanyolLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals63% A
Toulouse vs Estac TroyesLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals63% A
Napoli vs RomaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals81% A
Valencia vs VillarrealLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals75% A
Chelsea vs TottenhamPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals70% A
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals74% A
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913Serie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals57% A
Lens vs Paris FCLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals64% A
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La CorunaLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals56% A
Inter vs FiorentinaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals86% A
Athletic Club vs GetafeLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals56% A
Liverpool vs BrightonPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals82% A
Manchester United vs BournemouthPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals67% A
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals75% A
Hull City vs BrentfordPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals60% A
Genoa vs VeneziaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals66% A
Atalanta vs FrosinoneSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals78% A
Monaco vs LilleLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals53% A
Hoffenheim vs Bayer LeverkusenBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals69% A
Celta Vigo vs Real BetisLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals63% A
Angers vs LorientLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals58% A
Marseille vs Le HavreLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals73% A
Rennes vs StrasbourgLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals71% A
Auxerre vs Le MansLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals67% A
Sunderland vs LeedsPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals70% A
Freiburg vs Bayern MunichBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals78% A
Lecce vs JuventusSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals69% A
Real Sociedad vs LevanteLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals76% A
Udinese vs AC MilanSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals74% A
Paris Saint Germain vs LyonLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals80% A
Barcelona vs Real MadridLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals90% A
Sevilla vs OsasunaLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals61% A
Sassuolo vs LazioSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals67% A
Roma vs CagliariSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals80% A
Torino vs ComoSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals71% A
AC Milan vs BolognaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals70% A
Venezia vs InterSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals91% A
Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals61% A
Genoa vs JuventusSerie AOur call: Under 2.5 goals Serie A Under 2.5 goals55% A
Monza vs NapoliSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals78% A

Our prob = the model probability of the selection named on that row. Grade A/B = the fixture is backed by both/one team’s xG record. No bookmaker prices are shown on this page: we only record odds for 1X2, so an edge for this market would be invented.

Probability distribution

56 priced fixtures · Over/Under

Each bar counts the fixtures whose top selection in this market falls in that probability band — the model’s own spread, not a forecast of how often it is right. Bands are 10 percentage points wide. 46 of 56 sit at 60% or higher.

Other markets for the same fixtures

Every market on this site is priced from one model, so these pages cover the same matches from a different angle.

All markets

Every probability on this page is produced by our own model — expected-goals team ratings turned into a Dixon-Coles scoreline grid, blended with de-vigged market odds where we record them. How our model works →