Freiburg vs Bayern Munich preview
Freiburg has an 18% chance of winning, while Bayern Munich stands at 64%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Over 2.5 goals is expected at 78%, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 77%. Freiburg's expected goals are 2.01 compared to Bayern Munich's 2.31.
Freiburg's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 losses, while Bayern Munich has 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. In their last 6 encounters, Freiburg has not secured a victory, with 5 wins for Bayern Munich and 1 draw. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of wins in head-to-head matches raises questions about Freiburg's chances.
Why this pick: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, Bayern Munich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: model vs market
| Source | Freiburg | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| Market | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| Published | 18% | 18% | 64% |
| Edge | +15% | +6% | -21% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 8.00 | 6.50 | -1.50 |
| Draw | 6.00 | 5.78 | -0.22 |
| Bayern Munich | 1.30 | 1.38 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Freiburg and Bayern Munich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.33
- Attack rating (Freiburg / Bayern Munich)
- 1.27 / 1.88
- Defence rating (Freiburg / Bayern Munich)
- 0.85 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: Bayern Munich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 18% | 5.47 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.56 | |
| Bayern Munich | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Freiburg or draw) | 36% | 2.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Bayern Munich) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win by 2+ | 30% | 3.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Freiburg and Bayern Munich recent form
Freiburg
4W 1D 1L
Bayern Munich
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Freiburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayern Munich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, Bayern Munich away only.
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Freiburg 0 · draws 1 · Bayern Munich 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Freiburg | 2-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-22 | Bayern Munich | 6-2 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-01-25 | Freiburg | 1-2 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2024-09-01 | Bayern Munich | 2-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-01 | Freiburg | 2-2 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-08 | Bayern Munich | 3-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-10-23
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin 2026-10-24
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-10-24
- Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-10-24
- Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Freiburg, previous: Bayer Leverkusen – Freiburg, 2026-10-18
- Bayern Munich, previous: Bayern Munich v RasenBallsport Leipzig analysis