Racing Santander vs Espanyol preview
Racing Santander has a 42% probability of winning, while Espanyol sits at 33%. The expected goals for Racing Santander is 1.90 compared to Espanyol's 1.38. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability.
Both teams are projected to score, with a 67% likelihood for both teams to find the net. Racing Santander's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins in their last six matches, while Espanyol has only one win in the same span. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of a clear trend in recent performances raises some uncertainty.
Why this pick: Racing Santander vs Espanyol
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Racing Santander 8, Espanyol 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Racing Santander vs Espanyol: model vs market
| Source | Racing Santander | Draw | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | +11% | -1% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Racing Santander below the model: +11.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Racing Santander vs Espanyol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Racing Santander, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 2.60 | 2.45 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.62 | +0.02 |
| Espanyol | 2.35 | 2.70 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Racing Santander and Espanyol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.29
- Attack rating (Racing Santander / Espanyol)
- 1.18 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Racing Santander / Espanyol)
- 1.35 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Racing Santander vs Espanyol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Racing Santander goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Racing Santander vs Espanyol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Racing Santander vs Espanyol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Santander | 42% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Espanyol | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Racing Santander or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Espanyol) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Santander win by 2+ | 30% | 3.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Racing Santander and Espanyol recent form
Racing Santander
2W 1D 3L
Espanyol
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Racing Santander at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Espanyol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Santander at home only, Espanyol away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Alaves vs Malaga 2026-10-23
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Racing Santander, previous: Osasuna vs Racing Santander: odds and pick
- Espanyol, previous: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid prediction