Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon preview
Paris Saint Germain has a 66% probability of winning against Lyon, who sit at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability. While PSG's expected goals stand at 2.59, Lyon's is lower at 1.65. This suggests a potential advantage for the home side, but it does not confirm the outcome.
Recent form shows Paris Saint Germain on a six-match winning streak, while Lyon has won four of their last six. In their last six encounters, PSG has won 5 times and Lyon once. The confidence grade for this prediction is A, but the lack of draws in the head-to-head record raises questions about Lyon's ability to compete effectively.
Why this pick: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris Saint Germain 10, Lyon 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: model vs market
| Source | Paris Saint Germain | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 19% | 25% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Published | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Edge | -10% | 0% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.36 | 1.42 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 5.40 | 5.05 | -0.35 |
| Lyon | 7.00 | 6.38 | -0.62 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Paris Saint Germain and Lyon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.41
- Attack rating (Paris Saint Germain / Lyon)
- 1.80 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Paris Saint Germain / Lyon)
- 1.09 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Paris Saint Germain goals. Columns: Lyon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.33 | |
| Lyon | 17% | 5.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.32 |
| No | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Paris Saint Germain or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Lyon) | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win by 2+ | 37% | 2.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Paris Saint Germain and Lyon recent form
Paris Saint Germain
6W 0D 0L
Lyon
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Paris Saint Germain at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Lyon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain at home only, Lyon away only.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 5 · draws 0 · Lyon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Paris Saint Germain | 1-2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Lyon | 2-3 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Lyon | 2-3 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-15 | Paris Saint Germain | 3-1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Paris Saint Germain | 4-1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Lyon | 1-4 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Brest vs Nice 2026-10-23
- Toulouse vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lens vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Monaco vs Lille 2026-10-25
- Angers v Lorient — match page 2026-10-25
- Marseille vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Rennes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-10-25
- Auxerre v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Paris Saint Germain, previous: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
- Lyon, previous: Lyon vs Nice: odds and pick