Torino vs Monza preview
Torino has a 44% probability of winning against Monza, who share a 28% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Torino, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Torino stand at 1.70, while Monza's expected goals are slightly lower at 1.49.
Both teams to score has a 65% probability, and there is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored. Recent form shows Torino with 2 wins from their last 6 matches, while Monza has also struggled, recording only 2 wins in their last 6. Torino has a historical advantage in their last 8 encounters, winning 4 times, but the lack of a clear favourite raises uncertainty.
Why this pick: Torino vs Monza
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, Monza 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Torino vs Monza: model vs market
| Source | Torino | Draw | Monza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Torino vs Monza odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Torino, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 2.09 | 2.10 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.40 | -0.05 |
| Monza | 3.54 | 3.45 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torino and Monza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Torino / Monza)
- 0.98 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Torino / Monza)
- 1.07 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torino vs Monza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torino goals. Columns: Monza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torino vs Monza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torino vs Monza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torino | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Monza | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torino or draw) | 72% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Monza) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Torino win by 2+ | 22% | 4.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Torino and Monza recent form
Torino
2W 1D 3L
Monza
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Monza away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Torino at home only, Monza away only.
Torino vs Monza head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Torino 4 · draws 3 · Monza 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Torino | 0-1 | Monza | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-03-02 | Monza | 0-2 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2024-11-24 | Torino | 1-1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2024-03-30 | Torino | 1-0 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2023-11-11 | Monza | 1-1 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2023-05-07 | Torino | 1-1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2022-12-28 | Monza | 1-4 | Torino | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-08-13 | Monza | 1-2 | Torino | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Torino, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino prediction
- Monza, previous: Monza vs Cagliari: odds and pick