Lecce vs Juventus preview
Lecce has a 12% probability of winning, while Juventus stands at 67%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 10% chance according to the model. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 70%, and both teams to score is at 58%. Juventus has an expected goals figure of 2.64, compared to Lecce's 0.95.
Lecce's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 losses, while Juventus has 3 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw. In their last 6 encounters, Lecce has not won, with Juventus securing 4 victories and 2 draws. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of recent success for Lecce raises questions about their ability to compete effectively.
Why this pick: Lecce vs Juventus
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lecce 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lecce vs Juventus: model vs market
| Source | Lecce | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| Market | 13% | 22% | 66% |
| Published | 12% | 21% | 67% |
| Edge | -3% | -3% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Juventus below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lecce vs Juventus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 7.79 | 7.50 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 4.19 | 4.38 | +0.18 |
| Juventus | 1.45 | 1.44 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lecce and Juventus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.59
- Attack rating (Lecce / Juventus)
- 1.18 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Lecce / Juventus)
- 1.52 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lecce vs Juventus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lecce goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lecce vs Juventus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lecce vs Juventus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 12% | 8.39 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Juventus | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lecce or draw) | 33% | 3.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventus) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 52% | 1.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lecce and Juventus recent form
Lecce
2W 0D 4L
Juventus
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lecce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lecce at home only, Juventus away only.
Lecce vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lecce 0 · draws 2 · Juventus 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Lecce | 0-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2026-01-03 | Juventus | 1-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2025-04-12 | Juventus | 2-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2024-12-01 | Lecce | 1-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2024-01-21 | Lecce | 0-3 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2023-09-26 | Juventus | 1-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Inter v Fiorentina — match page 2026-10-25
- Genoa v Venezia — match page 2026-10-25
- Atalanta vs Frosinone — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Udinese vs AC Milan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Lecce, previous: Udinese – Lecce, 2026-10-18
- Juventus, previous: Juventus v Lazio analysis