Auxerre vs Le Mans preview
Auxerre has a 44% probability of winning, while Le Mans stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance according to the model. Auxerre's expected goals are 1.87, compared to Le Mans's 1.67. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
Auxerre's recent form shows a mix of results with two wins and four losses, while Le Mans has one win, two draws, and three losses. This inconsistency raises questions about the reliability of their current performances. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of both teams introduces uncertainty in the outcome.
Why this pick: Auxerre vs Le Mans
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Auxerre 10, Le Mans 7). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: model vs market
| Source | Auxerre | Draw | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| Published | 44% | 26% | 31% |
| Edge | -4% | -4% | +8% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Auxerre vs Le Mans odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Auxerre, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 2.17 | 2.11 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.55 | -0.05 |
| Le Mans | 3.28 | 3.29 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Auxerre and Le Mans expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (Auxerre / Le Mans)
- 0.97 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Auxerre / Le Mans)
- 1.19 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Auxerre vs Le Mans score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Auxerre goals. Columns: Le Mans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Auxerre vs Le Mans goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Auxerre vs Le Mans
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auxerre | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Le Mans | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Auxerre or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Le Mans) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Auxerre win by 2+ | 22% | 4.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Auxerre and Le Mans recent form
Auxerre
3W 0D 3L
Le Mans
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Auxerre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Le Mans away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Auxerre at home only, Le Mans away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Brest vs Nice 2026-10-23
- Toulouse vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lens vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Monaco vs Lille 2026-10-25
- Angers v Lorient — match page 2026-10-25
- Marseille vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Rennes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-10-25
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Auxerre, previous: Le Havre vs Auxerre: odds and pick
- Le Mans, previous: Le Mans – Toulouse, 2026-10-16