Atalanta vs Frosinone preview
Atalanta has a 51% probability of winning against Frosinone, who sit at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance. Both teams are expected to score, as indicated by the 75% probability for that outcome. Atalanta has an expected goals figure of 1.85, while Frosinone's is higher at 2.08.
Recent form shows Atalanta with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while Frosinone has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The head-to-head record is even, with each team winning once in their last 2 encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the discrepancy in expected goals raises questions about the accuracy of these forecasts.
Why this pick: Atalanta vs Frosinone
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atalanta 10, Frosinone 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: model vs market
| Source | Atalanta | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| Market | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Published | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Edge | -21% | 0% | +21% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atalanta vs Frosinone odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.62 | 1.78 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.12 | -0.08 |
| Frosinone | 4.97 | 3.99 | -0.98 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atalanta and Frosinone expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.14
- Attack rating (Atalanta / Frosinone)
- 1.14 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Atalanta / Frosinone)
- 1.29 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atalanta vs Frosinone score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Frosinone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atalanta vs Frosinone goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atalanta vs Frosinone
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Frosinone | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.29 |
| No | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atalanta or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Frosinone) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win by 2+ | 18% | 5.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atalanta and Frosinone recent form
Atalanta
2W 0D 4L
Frosinone
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atalanta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Frosinone away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atalanta at home only, Frosinone away only.
Atalanta vs Frosinone head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Atalanta 1 · draws 0 · Frosinone 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-15 | Atalanta | 5-0 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2023-08-26 | Frosinone | 2-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Inter v Fiorentina — match page 2026-10-25
- Genoa v Venezia — match page 2026-10-25
- Lecce vs Juventus — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Udinese vs AC Milan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Atalanta, previous: AC Milan – Atalanta, 2026-10-18
- Frosinone, previous: Frosinone – Sassuolo, 2026-10-16