Liverpool vs Brighton preview
Liverpool has a 44% probability of winning against Brighton, who sit at 32%. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Liverpool at 1.88 and Brighton at 2.08. While Liverpool has won 4 of the last 7 encounters, this does not guarantee a repeat performance. Brighton's recent form is impressive, with 6 consecutive wins, which adds uncertainty to the fixture.
The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favour of Liverpool, occurring at a 7% chance. Both teams scoring stands at 76%, while there is a 77% likelihood of over 2.5 goals. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of both teams raises questions about the outcome.
Why this pick: Liverpool vs Brighton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Liverpool 10, Brighton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Liverpool vs Brighton: model vs market
| Source | Liverpool | Draw | Brighton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 21% | 41% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Published | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Edge | -7% | -4% | +11% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Liverpool vs Brighton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.85 | 2.12 | +0.27 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.75 | +0.05 |
| Brighton | 3.80 | 3.15 | -0.65 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Liverpool and Brighton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.32
- Attack rating (Liverpool / Brighton)
- 1.55 / 1.58
- Defence rating (Liverpool / Brighton)
- 1.16 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Liverpool vs Brighton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Liverpool vs Brighton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Liverpool vs Brighton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Brighton | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 5.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Liverpool or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Brighton) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool win by 2+ | 22% | 4.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Liverpool and Brighton recent form
Liverpool
5W 0D 1L
Brighton
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Liverpool at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Brighton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool at home only, Brighton away only.
Liverpool vs Brighton head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Liverpool 4 · draws 1 · Brighton 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Brighton | 2-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2026-02-14 | Liverpool | 3-0 | Brighton | England FA Cup |
| 2025-12-13 | Liverpool | 2-0 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2025-05-19 | Brighton | 3-2 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2024-11-02 | Liverpool | 2-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2024-03-31 | Liverpool | 2-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2023-10-08 | Brighton | 2-2 | Liverpool | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arsenal v Everton — match page 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chelsea vs Tottenham 2026-10-24
- Manchester United v Bournemouth — match page 2026-10-25
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Hull City vs Brentford 2026-10-25
- Sunderland v Leeds — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Liverpool, previous: Brentford vs Liverpool prediction
- Brighton, previous: Brighton vs Crystal Palace: odds and pick