Athletic Club vs Getafe preview
Athletic Club has a 59% probability of winning against Getafe, who sit at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance according to the model. Athletic Club's expected goals are 1.84, while Getafe's are significantly lower at 0.86.
Recent form shows Athletic Club with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while Getafe has one win and three draws in the same period. In their last six encounters, both teams have secured two wins each, with two matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this fixture is A, but the head-to-head results introduce uncertainty.
Why this pick: Athletic Club vs Getafe
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Athletic Club 10, Getafe 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Athletic Club vs Getafe: model vs market
| Source | Athletic Club | Draw | Getafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 17% |
| Published | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Athletic Club below the model: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Athletic Club vs Getafe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 1.66 | 1.62 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.88 | +0.33 |
| Getafe | 4.90 | 5.72 | +0.82 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Athletic Club and Getafe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Athletic Club / Getafe)
- 1.09 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Athletic Club / Getafe)
- 0.98 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Athletic Club vs Getafe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Getafe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Athletic Club vs Getafe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Athletic Club vs Getafe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Getafe | 16% | 6.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Athletic Club or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Getafe) | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win by 2+ | 41% | 2.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Athletic Club and Getafe recent form
Athletic Club
2W 3D 1L
Getafe
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Athletic Club at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Getafe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Getafe away only.
Athletic Club vs Getafe head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Athletic Club 2 · draws 2 · Getafe 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Getafe | 2-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2025-10-25 | Athletic Club | 0-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2025-05-15 | Getafe | 0-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2024-08-15 | Athletic Club | 1-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-05-03 | Getafe | 0-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2023-09-27 | Athletic Club | 2-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Celta Vigo vs Real Betis 2026-10-25
- Real Sociedad v Levante — match page 2026-10-25
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- Sevilla vs Osasuna — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Athletic Club, previous: Levante vs Athletic Club prediction
- Getafe, previous: Getafe – Rayo Vallecano, 2026-10-19