Real Sociedad vs Levante preview
Real Sociedad has a 55% probability of winning against Levante, who sit at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Real Sociedad's expected goals are 2.25, while Levante's are 1.65. Both teams scoring is predicted at 75%, and there is a 76% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Real Sociedad with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while Levante has 1 win and 2 losses in the same period. The head-to-head record favours Real Sociedad, with 1 win and 1 draw in their last 2 encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of a clear recent trend for Levante raises some doubt.
Why this pick: Real Sociedad vs Levante
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Sociedad 10, Levante 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Sociedad vs Levante: model vs market
| Source | Real Sociedad | Draw | Levante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Sociedad vs Levante odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.71 | 1.73 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.05 | +0.05 |
| Levante | 4.53 | 4.50 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Sociedad and Levante expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (Real Sociedad / Levante)
- 1.04 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Real Sociedad / Levante)
- 1.25 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Sociedad vs Levante score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Levante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Sociedad vs Levante goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Sociedad vs Levante
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Levante | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Sociedad or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Levante) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Real Sociedad and Levante recent form
Real Sociedad
3W 1D 2L
Levante
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Sociedad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levante away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad at home only, Levante away only.
Real Sociedad vs Levante head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Real Sociedad 1 · draws 1 · Levante 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Real Sociedad | 2-0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2025-12-20 | Levante | 1-1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Racing Santander vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Valencia vs Villarreal 2026-10-24
- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Athletic Club vs Getafe 2026-10-25
- Celta Vigo vs Real Betis 2026-10-25
- Barcelona v Real Madrid — match page 2026-10-25
- Sevilla vs Osasuna — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Real Sociedad, previous: Malaga v Real Sociedad analysis
- Levante, previous: Levante vs Athletic Club prediction