Rayo Vallecano vs Elche preview
Rayo Vallecano has a 53% probability of winning against Elche, who stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to the model. Rayo Vallecano has an expected goals figure of 1.79, while Elche's is lower at 1.14. Both teams have a 60% probability of scoring, and there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals occurring.
Recent form shows Rayo Vallecano with a record of D-W-L-W-L-D, while Elche has D-W-L-D-L-L. The head-to-head record is evenly split, with each team winning once in the last two encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of clarity in recent performances raises questions about the outcome.
Why this pick: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rayo Vallecano 10, Elche 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: model vs market
| Source | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Elche |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rayo Vallecano, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.68 | 1.75 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.75 | -0.10 |
| Elche | 4.30 | 4.43 | +0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rayo Vallecano and Elche expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Rayo Vallecano / Elche)
- 0.95 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Rayo Vallecano / Elche)
- 1.06 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rayo Vallecano goals. Columns: Elche goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Elche | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rayo Vallecano or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Elche) | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rayo Vallecano and Elche recent form
Rayo Vallecano
2W 2D 2L
Elche
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rayo Vallecano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Elche away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano at home only, Elche away only.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 1 · draws 0 · Elche 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2025-12-21 | Elche | 4-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Alaves vs Malaga 2026-10-23
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Rayo Vallecano, previous: Getafe – Rayo Vallecano, 2026-10-19
- Elche, previous: Villarreal v Elche analysis