VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach preview
VfB Stuttgart has a 65% probability of winning against Borussia M.Gladbach, who sit at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Stuttgart's expected goals are 2.86, while Gladbach's are 1.73. Both teams to score has a 77% likelihood, and there is an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Stuttgart with three wins in their last six matches, while Gladbach has lost five of their last six. In their last six head-to-head encounters, Stuttgart has 4 wins and Gladbach has 2. The confidence grade is A. The lack of recent success for Gladbach raises questions about their performance.
Why this pick: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (VfB Stuttgart 10, Borussia M.Gladbach 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach: model vs market
| Source | VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Borussia M.Gladbach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| Market | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Published | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Edge | -10% | +2% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 1.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.40 | 1.39 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 5.20 | 5.26 | +0.06 |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 6.70 | 6.65 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.59
- Attack rating (VfB Stuttgart / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 1.33 / 1.05
- Defence rating (VfB Stuttgart / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 1.08 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals. Columns: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.39 | |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 16% | 6.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.31 |
| No | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VfB Stuttgart or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Borussia M.Gladbach) | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win by 2+ | 39% | 2.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form
VfB Stuttgart
3W 0D 3L
Borussia M.Gladbach
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VfB Stuttgart at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Borussia M.Gladbach away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart at home only, Borussia M.Gladbach away only.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 4 · draws 0 · Borussia M.Gladbach 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 0-3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-30 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-0 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-01 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2024-09-14 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 1-3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2024-05-18 | VfB Stuttgart | 4-0 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-14 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 3-1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin 2026-10-24
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- VfB Stuttgart, previous: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
- Borussia M.Gladbach, previous: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim prediction