Monaco vs Lille preview
Monaco has a 45% probability of winning against Lille, who sit at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.70 for Monaco compared to 1.20 for Lille. Despite Monaco's higher expected goals, this does not guarantee a victory.
Recent form shows Monaco with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Lille has only 1 win in the same period. In their last 6 encounters, Lille has won 4 times, which raises questions about Monaco's ability to overcome this historical disadvantage. The confidence grade for this match is A, yet the head-to-head record remains a significant source of doubt.
Why this pick: Monaco vs Lille
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monaco 10, Lille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Monaco vs Lille: model vs market
| Source | Monaco | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Edge | +2% | -3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Monaco below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Monaco vs Lille odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2.13 | 2.13 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.76 | 3.42 | -0.34 |
| Lille | 3.33 | 3.45 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monaco and Lille expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Monaco / Lille)
- 1.03 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Monaco / Lille)
- 0.97 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monaco vs Lille score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monaco goals. Columns: Lille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monaco vs Lille goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monaco vs Lille
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Lille | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monaco or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Lille) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win by 2+ | 24% | 4.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Monaco and Lille recent form
Monaco
3W 2D 1L
Lille
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monaco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lille away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monaco at home only, Lille away only.
Monaco vs Lille head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Monaco 1 · draws 1 · Lille 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Monaco | 0-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Lille | 1-0 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Lille | 2-1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-10-18 | Monaco | 0-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-24 | Monaco | 1-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-29 | Lille | 2-0 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Brest vs Nice 2026-10-23
- Toulouse vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lens vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Angers v Lorient — match page 2026-10-25
- Marseille vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Rennes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-10-25
- Auxerre v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-25
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Monaco, previous: Lorient – Monaco, 2026-10-18
- Lille, previous: Lille v Brest analysis