Why this pick: Monza vs Napoli
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monza 10, Napoli 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Monza vs Napoli: model vs market
| Source | Monza | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 23% | 41% |
| Market | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| Published | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Edge | +11% | -3% | -8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Monza vs Napoli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 4.14 | 3.83 | -0.31 |
| Draw | 3.79 | 3.67 | -0.12 |
| Napoli | 1.84 | 1.90 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monza and Napoli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.12
- Attack rating (Monza / Napoli)
- 1.32 / 1.51
- Defence rating (Monza / Napoli)
- 1.19 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monza vs Napoli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monza goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monza vs Napoli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monza vs Napoli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monza | 27% | 3.65 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Napoli | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.29 |
| No | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monza or draw) | 52% | 1.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Napoli) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win by 2+ | 25% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Monza and Napoli recent form
Monza
3W 1D 2L
Napoli
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Napoli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monza at home only, Napoli away only.
Monza vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Monza 0 · draws 1 · Napoli 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-19 | Monza | 0-1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-09-29 | Napoli | 2-0 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2024-04-07 | Monza | 2-4 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2023-12-29 | Napoli | 0-0 | Monza | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
- AC Milan vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Venezia vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese 2026-10-28
- Genoa vs Juventus 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Monza, previous: Torino vs Monza: odds and pick
- Napoli, previous: Napoli vs Roma: odds and pick