Coventry vs Fulham preview
Coventry has a 36% probability of winning, while Fulham stands at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a 7% likelihood. Both teams to score has a forecasted probability of 69%, and there is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored.
Coventry's expected goals sit at 1.87, compared to Fulham's 1.56. Recent form shows Coventry with two wins and four losses, while Fulham has two wins, two draws, and two losses. The confidence grade for this match is B, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. The lack of a clear standout in recent performances raises questions about the accuracy of these forecasts.
Why this pick: Coventry vs Fulham
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Coventry 7, Fulham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Coventry vs Fulham: model vs market
| Source | Coventry | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | +14% | -2% | -11% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Coventry vs Fulham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fulham, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 2.90 | 2.92 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.51 | +0.06 |
| Fulham | 2.20 | 2.31 | +0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Coventry and Fulham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.43
- Attack rating (Coventry / Fulham)
- 1.17 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Coventry / Fulham)
- 1.09 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coventry vs Fulham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coventry goals. Columns: Fulham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coventry vs Fulham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coventry vs Fulham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coventry | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Fulham | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coventry or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Fulham) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fulham win by 2+ | 15% | 6.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Coventry and Fulham recent form
Coventry
2W 0D 4L
Fulham
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coventry at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Fulham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Coventry at home only, Fulham away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-10-23
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arsenal v Everton — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Coventry, previous: Tottenham v Coventry analysis
- Fulham, previous: Fulham v Hull City analysis