Manchester United vs Bournemouth preview
Manchester United has a 45% probability of winning against Bournemouth, who sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which occurs at a rate of 7%. Despite this, Manchester United's expected goals are 1.37, significantly lower than Bournemouth's 2.02.
Recent form shows Manchester United with 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Bournemouth has 3 wins and 2 draws in the same period. The head-to-head record reveals Manchester United has not won any of their last 6 encounters, with 4 draws and 2 wins for Bournemouth. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form raises questions about Manchester United's ability to secure a win.
Why this pick: Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester United 10, Bournemouth 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: model vs market
| Source | Manchester United | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Published | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Edge | -25% | 0% | +25% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manchester United, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.79 | 1.85 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 4.36 | 3.86 | -0.50 |
| Bournemouth | 4.42 | 3.88 | -0.54 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Manchester United and Bournemouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Manchester United / Bournemouth)
- 1.20 / 1.50
- Defence rating (Manchester United / Bournemouth)
- 1.09 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Bournemouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Manchester United vs Bournemouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Bournemouth | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Manchester United or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Bournemouth) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester United win by 2+ | 12% | 8.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Manchester United and Bournemouth recent form
Manchester United
0W 3D 3L
Bournemouth
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Manchester United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 80% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bournemouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester United at home only, Bournemouth away only.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Manchester United 0 · draws 4 · Bournemouth 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Bournemouth | 2-2 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2025-12-15 | Manchester United | 4-4 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2025-04-27 | Bournemouth | 1-1 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2024-12-22 | Manchester United | 0-3 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2024-04-13 | Bournemouth | 2-2 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2023-12-09 | Manchester United | 0-3 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arsenal v Everton — match page 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chelsea vs Tottenham 2026-10-24
- Liverpool vs Brighton 2026-10-25
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Hull City vs Brentford 2026-10-25
- Sunderland v Leeds — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Manchester United, previous: Leeds vs Manchester United prediction
- Bournemouth, previous: Bournemouth v Sunderland analysis