Why this pick: Venezia vs Inter
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Venezia 10, Inter 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Venezia vs Inter: model vs market
| Source | Venezia | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 17% | 59% |
| Market | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| Published | 15% | 17% | 68% |
| Edge | +12% | 0% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 1.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Venezia vs Inter odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 7.72 | 7.96 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 5.91 | 5.65 | -0.26 |
| Inter | 1.32 | 1.33 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Venezia and Inter expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.04
- Attack rating (Venezia / Inter)
- 1.34 / 1.77
- Defence rating (Venezia / Inter)
- 1.47 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Venezia vs Inter score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Venezia goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Venezia vs Inter goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 86%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Venezia vs Inter
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 15% | 6.73 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.95 | |
| Inter | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 91% | 1.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 9% | 11.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 86% | 1.16 |
| No | 14% | 7.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Venezia or draw) | 32% | 3.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 43% | 2.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Venezia and Inter recent form
Venezia
1W 0D 5L
Inter
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Venezia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Inter away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Venezia at home only, Inter away only.
Venezia vs Inter head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Venezia 0 · draws 0 · Inter 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | Inter | 5-1 | Venezia | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-01-12 | Venezia | 0-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-11-03 | Inter | 1-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sassuolo v Lazio — match page 2026-10-27
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
- AC Milan vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese 2026-10-28
- Genoa vs Juventus 2026-10-28
- Monza v Napoli — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Venezia, previous: Genoa – Venezia, 2026-10-25
- Inter, previous: Inter vs Fiorentina prediction