Rennes vs Strasbourg preview
Rennes holds a 56% probability of winning against Strasbourg, who sit at 23%. The expected goals for Rennes is 2.43 compared to Strasbourg's 1.34, indicating a potential for a 2-1 scoreline, which our model predicts at 9%. However, this does not prove that Rennes will secure the win, as recent form shows both teams fluctuating, with Rennes recording L-W-W-L-D-W and Strasbourg L-L-L-D-W-W.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 71%, and both teams to score stands at 67%. Despite Rennes having a better head-to-head record with 3 wins out of the last 6 encounters, the recent performances of both teams introduce a significant element of uncertainty.
Why this pick: Rennes vs Strasbourg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rennes 10, Strasbourg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rennes vs Strasbourg: model vs market
| Source | Rennes | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rennes below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rennes vs Strasbourg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rennes, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 1.77 | 1.73 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 4.16 | 4.25 | +0.09 |
| Strasbourg | 4.42 | 4.15 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rennes and Strasbourg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.78
- Attack rating (Rennes / Strasbourg)
- 1.29 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Rennes / Strasbourg)
- 1.26 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rennes vs Strasbourg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rennes goals. Columns: Strasbourg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rennes vs Strasbourg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rennes vs Strasbourg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Strasbourg | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rennes or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Strasbourg) | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win by 2+ | 38% | 2.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rennes and Strasbourg recent form
Rennes
3W 1D 2L
Strasbourg
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rennes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Strasbourg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rennes at home only, Strasbourg away only.
Rennes vs Strasbourg head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Rennes 3 · draws 1 · Strasbourg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Strasbourg | 0-3 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Rennes | 4-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-02 | Rennes | 1-0 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-08-25 | Strasbourg | 3-1 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Strasbourg | 2-0 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-29 | Rennes | 1-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Brest vs Nice 2026-10-23
- Toulouse vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lens vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Monaco vs Lille 2026-10-25
- Angers v Lorient — match page 2026-10-25
- Marseille vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Auxerre v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-25
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Rennes, previous: Paris FC vs Rennes prediction
- Strasbourg, previous: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain prediction