Why this pick: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Parma Calcio 1913 10, Udinese 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese: model vs market
| Source | Parma Calcio 1913 | Draw | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | 0% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Udinese, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 3.02 | 3.00 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.25 | -0.03 |
| Udinese | 2.44 | 2.44 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Udinese expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Udinese)
- 0.78 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Udinese)
- 1.39 / 1.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Columns: Udinese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Udinese | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Parma Calcio 1913 or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Udinese) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Udinese win by 2+ | 21% | 4.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Udinese recent form
Parma Calcio 1913
1W 1D 4L
Udinese
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Parma Calcio 1913 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Udinese away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Parma Calcio 1913 at home only, Udinese away only.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Parma Calcio 1913 1 · draws 0 · Udinese 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Udinese | 0-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2025-11-29 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0-2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2025-03-01 | Udinese | 1-0 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2024-09-16 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2-3 | Udinese | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sassuolo v Lazio — match page 2026-10-27
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
- AC Milan vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Venezia vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Genoa vs Juventus 2026-10-28
- Monza v Napoli — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Parma Calcio 1913, previous: Lazio – Parma Calcio 1913, 2026-10-24
- Udinese, previous: Udinese vs AC Milan prediction