Toulouse vs Estac Troyes preview
Toulouse has a 56% probability of winning, while Estac Troyes stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% probability. Toulouse's expected goals are 2.07, compared to Estac Troyes' 1.16.
Both teams to score has a probability of 59%, and there is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals. Recent form shows Toulouse with a record of W-D-W-D-L-D, while Estac Troyes has L-L-L-L-W-D. The confidence grade for this analysis is B, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Why this pick: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Toulouse 10, Estac Troyes 6). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: model vs market
| Source | Toulouse | Draw | Estac Troyes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toulouse, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.60 | 1.70 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 4.29 | 4.10 | -0.19 |
| Estac Troyes | 5.69 | 4.75 | -0.94 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Toulouse and Estac Troyes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Toulouse / Estac Troyes)
- 1.16 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Toulouse / Estac Troyes)
- 1.04 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Toulouse goals. Columns: Estac Troyes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Estac Troyes | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Toulouse or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Estac Troyes) | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toulouse win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Toulouse and Estac Troyes recent form
Toulouse
2W 3D 1L
Estac Troyes
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Toulouse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estac Troyes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Toulouse at home only, Estac Troyes away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Brest vs Nice 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Toulouse, previous: Le Mans – Toulouse, 2026-10-16
- Estac Troyes, previous: Estac Troyes v Lens analysis