Inter vs Fiorentina preview
Inter has a 67% probability of winning against Fiorentina, who sit at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.93 for Inter and 1.91 for Fiorentina. Inter's recent form shows 3 wins and 3 losses, while Fiorentina has 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches.
The model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 86% and both teams scoring at 81%. Inter has won 4 of the last 6 encounters against Fiorentina, who have only managed 1 victory in that span. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of both teams raises questions about the reliability of these predictions.
Why this pick: Inter vs Fiorentina
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Inter 10, Fiorentina 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Inter vs Fiorentina: model vs market
| Source | Inter | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 19% | 23% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Published | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Edge | -12% | +1% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.92 vs 1.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.41, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Inter vs Fiorentina odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1.38 | 1.35 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 5.10 | 5.33 | +0.23 |
| Fiorentina | 7.50 | 7.95 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inter and Fiorentina expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.82
- Attack rating (Inter / Fiorentina)
- 1.88 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Inter / Fiorentina)
- 1.23 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter vs Fiorentina score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter vs Fiorentina goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter vs Fiorentina
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.54 | |
| Fiorentina | 15% | 6.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 14% | 7.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.23 |
| No | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Fiorentina) | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 40% | 2.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Inter and Fiorentina recent form
Inter
3W 1D 2L
Fiorentina
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Fiorentina away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Fiorentina away only.
Inter vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Inter 4 · draws 1 · Fiorentina 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Fiorentina | 1-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2025-10-29 | Inter | 3-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2025-02-10 | Inter | 2-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2025-02-06 | Fiorentina | 3-0 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-01-28 | Fiorentina | 0-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2023-09-03 | Inter | 4-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Genoa v Venezia — match page 2026-10-25
- Atalanta vs Frosinone — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lecce vs Juventus — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Udinese vs AC Milan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Inter, previous: Bologna vs Inter: odds and pick
- Fiorentina, previous: Fiorentina vs Como prediction