Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen preview
Hoffenheim has a 32% chance of winning, while Bayer Leverkusen stands at 44%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Hoffenheim's expected goals are 1.55, compared to Bayer Leverkusen's 2.27, indicating a significant difference in attacking potential.
Recent form shows Hoffenheim with four losses in their last six matches, while Bayer Leverkusen has won five of their last six. Both teams are likely to score, with a 69% probability, and there is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals. The head-to-head record favours Bayer Leverkusen with 4 wins out of the last 6 encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of Hoffenheim raises questions.
Why this pick: Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hoffenheim 10, Bayer Leverkusen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen: model vs market
| Source | Hoffenheim | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Market | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Edge | -11% | 0% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bayer Leverkusen below the model: +11.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 3.05 | 2.71 | -0.34 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.98 | +0.02 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2.10 | 2.30 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Hoffenheim / Bayer Leverkusen)
- 1.11 / 1.44
- Defence rating (Hoffenheim / Bayer Leverkusen)
- 1.02 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hoffenheim goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hoffenheim or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Bayer Leverkusen) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen recent form
Hoffenheim
2W 0D 4L
Bayer Leverkusen
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hoffenheim at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayer Leverkusen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hoffenheim at home only, Bayer Leverkusen away only.
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Hoffenheim 2 · draws 0 · Bayer Leverkusen 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Hoffenheim | 1-0 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-23 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-2 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-02 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2024-09-14 | Hoffenheim | 1-4 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-30 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2023-11-04 | Hoffenheim | 2-3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-10-23
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin 2026-10-24
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-10-24
- Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-10-24
- Freiburg vs Bayern Munich — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Hoffenheim, previous: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim prediction
- Bayer Leverkusen, previous: Bayer Leverkusen – Freiburg, 2026-10-18