Torino vs Como preview
Torino has a 23% chance of winning, while Como stands at 52%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.65 for Torino and 2.03 for Como. This suggests Como may have the upper hand, but it does not confirm a victory.
Recent form shows Torino with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Como has 4 wins in the same period. Head-to-head results indicate Torino has won 1 of their last 4 encounters against Como, who have won 3. The confidence grade is A, yet this does not eliminate uncertainty regarding the outcome.
Why this pick: Torino vs Como
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, Como 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Torino vs Como: model vs market
| Source | Torino | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Published | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Edge | +9% | -1% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.65.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Torino vs Como odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Como, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 4.67 | 4.50 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.75 | +0.10 |
| Como | 1.77 | 1.76 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torino and Como expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.68
- Attack rating (Torino / Como)
- 0.98 / 1.61
- Defence rating (Torino / Como)
- 1.06 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torino vs Como score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torino goals. Columns: Como goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torino vs Como goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torino vs Como
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torino | 23% | 4.29 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Como | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torino or draw) | 48% | 2.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Como) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win by 2+ | 27% | 3.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Torino and Como recent form
Torino
3W 1D 2L
Como
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Como away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Torino at home only, Como away only.
Torino vs Como head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Torino 1 · draws 0 · Como 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Como | 6-0 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2025-11-24 | Torino | 1-5 | Como | Serie A |
| 2025-04-13 | Como | 1-0 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2024-10-25 | Torino | 1-0 | Como | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sassuolo v Lazio — match page 2026-10-27
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Torino, previous: Torino vs Monza: odds and pick
- Como, previous: Como v Sassuolo analysis