Market picks
56 fixtures with a published 1X2 number — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more are scheduled and get a page as they approach.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.GladbachBundesligaA | Bundesliga | VfB StuttgartOur prob 66%Best odds 1.43 | -10% | 59% | 69% | A | 1.43 | |
| Torino vs MonzaSerie AA | Serie A | TorinoOur prob 42%Best odds 2.20 | -11% | 34% | 44% | A | 2.20 | |
| Brest vs NiceLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | BrestOur prob 46%Best odds 2.31 | +12% | 55% | 43% | A | 2.31 | Bet Now |
| Alaves vs MalagaLa LigaA | La Liga | AlavesOur prob 56%Best odds 1.84 | +7% | 61% | 54% | A | 1.84 | Bet Now |
| Ipswich vs Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Nottingham ForestOur prob 42%Best odds 2.44 | -2% | 40% | 42% | A | 2.44 | |
| Aston Villa vs Manchester CityPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Manchester CityOur prob 50%Best odds 1.76 | -24% | 31% | 56% | A | 1.76 | |
| Rayo Vallecano vs ElcheLa LigaA | La Liga | Rayo VallecanoOur prob 56%Best odds 1.81 | +7% | 61% | 54% | A | 1.81 | Bet Now |
| Cagliari vs BolognaSerie AA | Serie A | BolognaOur prob 38%Best odds 2.55 | -4% | 34% | 39% | A | 2.55 | |
| Como vs SassuoloSerie AA | Serie A | ComoOur prob 60%Best odds 1.57 | -10% | 52% | 62% | A | 1.57 | |
| Mainz 05 vs Werder BremenBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Mainz 05Our prob 59%Best odds 1.73 | +9% | 66% | 57% | A | 1.73 | Bet Now |
| Augsburg vs Union BerlinBundesligaA | Bundesliga | AugsburgOur prob 51%Best odds 1.96 | +3% | 53% | 50% | A | 1.96 | Bet Now |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV ElversbergBundesligaB | Bundesliga | RasenBallsport LeipzigOur prob 61%Best odds 1.40 | -32% | 38% | 69% | B | 1.40 | |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SVBundesligaB | Bundesliga | SC Paderborn 07Our prob 42%Best odds 2.40 | +7% | 48% | 41% | B | 2.40 | Bet Now |
| FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04BundesligaB | Bundesliga | FC CologneOur prob 45%Best odds 2.12 | -8% | 40% | 47% | B | 2.12 | |
| Arsenal vs EvertonPremier LeagueA | Premier League | ArsenalOur prob 66%Best odds 1.43 | -10% | 58% | 68% | A | 1.43 | |
| Coventry vs FulhamPremier LeagueA | Premier League | FulhamOur prob 39%Best odds 2.41 | -8% | 33% | 41% | A | 2.41 | |
| Racing Santander vs EspanyolLa LigaA | La Liga | Racing SantanderOur prob 41%Best odds 2.60 | +3% | 43% | 40% | A | 2.60 | Bet Now |
| Toulouse vs Estac TroyesLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | ToulouseOur prob 55%Best odds 1.71 | -10% | 48% | 57% | A | 1.71 | |
| Napoli vs RomaSerie AA | Serie A | RomaOur prob 41%Best odds 2.62 | +10% | 48% | 38% | A | 2.62 | Bet Now |
| Valencia vs VillarrealLa LigaA | La Liga | VillarrealOur prob 43%Best odds 2.22 | -4% | 40% | 44% | A | 2.22 | |
| Chelsea vs TottenhamPremier LeagueA | Premier League | ChelseaOur prob 53%Best odds 1.81 | -6% | 48% | 54% | A | 1.81 | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Borussia DortmundOur prob 63%Best odds 1.48 | -6% | 59% | 65% | A | 1.48 | |
| Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913Serie AA | Serie A | LazioOur prob 64%Best odds 1.50 | -9% | 57% | 66% | A | 1.50 | |
| Lens vs Paris FCLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LensOur prob 40%Best odds 2.40 | -2% | 38% | 40% | A | 2.40 | |
| Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La CorunaLa LigaA | La Liga | Atletico MadridOur prob 70%Best odds 1.31 | -18% | 56% | 74% | A | 1.31 | |
| Inter vs FiorentinaSerie AA | Serie A | InterOur prob 67%Best odds 1.41 | -12% | 58% | 70% | A | 1.41 | |
| Athletic Club vs GetafeLa LigaA | La Liga | Athletic ClubOur prob 60%Best odds 1.66 | +5% | 63% | 59% | A | 1.66 | Bet Now |
| Liverpool vs BrightonPremier LeagueA | Premier League | LiverpoolOur prob 43%Best odds 2.19 | -7% | 38% | 45% | A | 2.19 | |
| Manchester United vs BournemouthPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Manchester UnitedOur prob 45%Best odds 1.91 | -25% | 26% | 51% | A | 1.91 | |
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Crystal PalaceOur prob 38%Best odds 3.02 | +17% | 50% | 33% | A | 3.02 | Bet Now |
| Hull City vs BrentfordPremier LeagueA | Premier League | BrentfordOur prob 51%Best odds 1.84 | -13% | 40% | 54% | A | 1.84 | |
| Genoa vs VeneziaSerie AA | Serie A | GenoaOur prob 45%Best odds 2.15 | -4% | 41% | 46% | A | 2.15 | |
| Atalanta vs FrosinoneSerie AA | Serie A | AtalantaOur prob 48%Best odds 1.83 | -21% | 33% | 53% | A | 1.83 | |
| Monaco vs LilleLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | MonacoOur prob 45%Best odds 2.22 | +2% | 47% | 45% | A | 2.22 | Bet Now |
| Hoffenheim vs Bayer LeverkusenBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayer LeverkusenOur prob 44%Best odds 2.39 | +11% | 52% | 41% | A | 2.39 | Bet Now |
| Celta Vigo vs Real BetisLa LigaA | La Liga | Real BetisOur prob 37%Best odds 2.95 | -3% | 35% | 38% | A | 2.95 | |
| Angers vs LorientLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LorientOur prob 40%Best odds 2.52 | +4% | 43% | 39% | A | 2.52 | Bet Now |
| Marseille vs Le HavreLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | MarseilleOur prob 58%Best odds 1.61 | -12% | 49% | 60% | A | 1.61 | |
| Rennes vs StrasbourgLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | RennesOur prob 56%Best odds 1.79 | +4% | 59% | 55% | A | 1.79 | Bet Now |
| Auxerre vs Le MansLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | AuxerreOur prob 44%Best odds 2.23 | -4% | 41% | 45% | A | 2.23 | |
| Sunderland vs LeedsPremier LeagueA | Premier League | SunderlandOur prob 36%Best odds 3.02 | +14% | 47% | 33% | A | 3.02 | Bet Now |
| Freiburg vs Bayern MunichBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayern MunichOur prob 64%Best odds 1.42 | -21% | 48% | 69% | A | 1.42 | |
| Lecce vs JuventusSerie AA | Serie A | JuventusOur prob 67%Best odds 1.50 | +6% | 72% | 66% | A | 1.50 | Bet Now |
| Real Sociedad vs LevanteLa LigaA | La Liga | Real SociedadOur prob 55%Best odds 1.76 | -3% | 52% | 55% | A | 1.76 | |
| Udinese vs AC MilanSerie AA | Serie A | AC MilanOur prob 58%Best odds 1.81 | +2% | 60% | 58% | A | 1.81 | Bet Now |
| Paris Saint Germain vs LyonLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Paris Saint GermainOur prob 64%Best odds 1.47 | -10% | 56% | 66% | A | 1.47 | |
| Barcelona vs Real MadridLa LigaA | La Liga | BarcelonaOur prob 61%Best odds 1.65 | +9% | 68% | 59% | A | 1.65 | Bet Now |
| Sevilla vs OsasunaLa LigaA | La Liga | SevillaOur prob 48%Best odds 2.02 | -3% | 46% | 49% | A | 2.02 | |
| Sassuolo vs LazioSerie AA | Serie A | LazioOur prob 37%Best odds 2.53 | -8% | 31% | 39% | A | 2.53 | |
| Roma vs CagliariSerie AA | Serie A | RomaOur prob 70%Best odds 1.40 | +2% | 72% | 70% | A | 1.40 | Bet Now |
| Torino vs ComoSerie AA | Serie A | ComoOur prob 52%Best odds 1.83 | -9% | 45% | 54% | A | 1.83 | |
| AC Milan vs BolognaSerie AA | Serie A | AC MilanOur prob 58%Best odds 1.65 | -3% | 56% | 59% | A | 1.65 | |
| Venezia vs InterSerie AA | Serie A | InterOur prob 68%Best odds 1.35 | -12% | 59% | 71% | A | 1.35 | |
| Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie AA | Serie A | UdineseOur prob 39%Best odds 2.49 | 0% | 39% | 39% | A | 2.49 | |
| Genoa vs JuventusSerie AA | Serie A | JuventusOur prob 58%Best odds 1.70 | +1% | 59% | 57% | A | 1.70 | Bet Now |
| Monza vs NapoliSerie AA | Serie A | NapoliOur prob 48%Best odds 1.96 | -8% | 41% | 50% | A | 1.96 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Probability distribution
56 priced fixtures · 1X2Each bar counts the fixtures whose top selection in this market falls in that probability band — the model’s own spread, not a forecast of how often it is right. Bands are 10 percentage points wide. 13 of 56 sit at 60% or higher.
Other markets for the same fixtures
Every market on this site is priced from one model, so these pages cover the same matches from a different angle.