Udinese vs AC Milan preview
Udinese has a 19% probability of winning against AC Milan, who have a 57% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% likelihood. Udinese's expected goals stand at 1.39, while AC Milan's are significantly higher at 2.47. Despite Udinese's two wins in the last six head-to-head encounters, their recent form shows five consecutive losses, raising questions about their current competitiveness.
AC Milan's recent form includes four wins and two draws in their last six matches, suggesting a stronger performance overall. The model indicates a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade is A, but the disparity in expected goals creates uncertainty regarding Udinese's ability to challenge effectively.
Why this pick: Udinese vs AC Milan
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Udinese 10, AC Milan 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Udinese vs AC Milan: model vs market
| Source | Udinese | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| Market | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| Published | 18% | 23% | 58% |
| Edge | +1% | -3% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Udinese vs AC Milan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 4.36 | 5.22 | +0.86 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.95 | +0.27 |
| AC Milan | 1.81 | 1.65 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Udinese and AC Milan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.85
- Attack rating (Udinese / AC Milan)
- 0.99 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Udinese / AC Milan)
- 1.46 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Udinese vs AC Milan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Udinese goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Udinese vs AC Milan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Udinese vs AC Milan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 18% | 5.44 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| AC Milan | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Udinese or draw) | 42% | 2.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or AC Milan) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win by 2+ | 40% | 2.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Udinese and AC Milan recent form
Udinese
1W 0D 5L
AC Milan
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Udinese at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
AC Milan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Udinese at home only, AC Milan away only.
Udinese vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Udinese 2 · draws 0 · AC Milan 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | AC Milan | 0-3 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2025-09-20 | Udinese | 0-3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-04-11 | Udinese | 0-4 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-10-19 | AC Milan | 1-0 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2024-01-20 | Udinese | 2-3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2023-11-04 | AC Milan | 0-1 | Udinese | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Inter v Fiorentina — match page 2026-10-25
- Genoa v Venezia — match page 2026-10-25
- Atalanta vs Frosinone — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lecce vs Juventus — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Udinese, previous: Udinese – Lecce, 2026-10-18
- AC Milan, previous: AC Milan – Atalanta, 2026-10-18