Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest preview
Ipswich has a 34% probability of winning, while Nottingham Forest stands at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 7% chance. Ipswich's expected goals are 1.96 compared to Nottingham Forest's 1.81. Both teams are forecasted to score, with a 74% likelihood for each side, and there is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Ipswich's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 losses, while Nottingham Forest has 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses. The head-to-head record favours Nottingham Forest with 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 3 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is B, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Why this pick: Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Ipswich 10, Nottingham Forest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: model vs market
| Source | Ipswich | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 23% | 37% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Published | 34% | 26% | 41% |
| Edge | +10% | -4% | -5% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nottingham Forest, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 2.74 | 3.04 | +0.30 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.52 | +0.24 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2.44 | 2.25 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ipswich and Nottingham Forest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.96
- Attack rating (Ipswich / Nottingham Forest)
- 1.17 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Ipswich / Nottingham Forest)
- 1.31 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ipswich goals. Columns: Nottingham Forest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ipswich | 34% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Nottingham Forest | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.31 |
| No | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ipswich or draw) | 59% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Nottingham Forest) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nottingham Forest win by 2+ | 20% | 4.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Ipswich and Nottingham Forest recent form
Ipswich
2W 0D 4L
Nottingham Forest
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ipswich at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Nottingham Forest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ipswich at home only, Nottingham Forest away only.
Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ipswich 0 · draws 1 · Nottingham Forest 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Ipswich | 2-4 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2025-03-03 | Nottingham Forest | 1-1 | Ipswich | England FA Cup |
| 2024-11-30 | Nottingham Forest | 1-0 | Ipswich | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arsenal v Everton — match page 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Ipswich, previous: Manchester City vs Ipswich: odds and pick
- Nottingham Forest, previous: Nottingham Forest – Arsenal, 2026-10-18