Cagliari vs Bologna preview
Cagliari has a 30% probability of winning against Bologna, who stands at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Cagliari's expected goals are 1.40, while Bologna's are slightly higher at 1.53. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Cagliari recording D-W-W-W-L-L and Bologna at W-D-L-D-L-L.
Cagliari has 1 win in their last 6 meetings with Bologna, who has won 4 times. The confidence grade for this match is A. The disparity in head-to-head results raises questions about Cagliari's ability to overcome their opponents. The overall probabilities suggest a competitive encounter, but they do not indicate a clear advantage for either side.
Why this pick: Cagliari vs Bologna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cagliari 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Cagliari vs Bologna: model vs market
| Source | Cagliari | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Published | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cagliari vs Bologna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bologna, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 3.23 | 3.22 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.02 | 3.04 | +0.02 |
| Bologna | 2.46 | 2.45 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cagliari and Bologna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Cagliari / Bologna)
- 1.00 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Cagliari / Bologna)
- 1.25 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cagliari vs Bologna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cagliari vs Bologna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cagliari vs Bologna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 30% | 3.29 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Bologna | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cagliari or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Bologna) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bologna win by 2+ | 20% | 5.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cagliari and Bologna recent form
Cagliari
3W 1D 2L
Bologna
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cagliari at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Bologna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cagliari at home only, Bologna away only.
Cagliari vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cagliari 1 · draws 1 · Bologna 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Bologna | 0-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-10-19 | Cagliari | 0-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-03-02 | Bologna | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-10-29 | Cagliari | 0-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2024-01-14 | Cagliari | 2-1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2023-09-02 | Bologna | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Torino vs Monza 2026-10-23
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Cagliari, previous: Monza vs Cagliari: odds and pick
- Bologna, previous: Bologna vs Inter: odds and pick