Why this pick: AC Milan vs Bologna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (AC Milan 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
AC Milan vs Bologna: model vs market
| Source | AC Milan | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
AC Milan vs Bologna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.11 | 4.06 | -0.05 |
| Bologna | 5.47 | 5.39 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AC Milan and Bologna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (AC Milan / Bologna)
- 1.42 / 1.07
- Defence rating (AC Milan / Bologna)
- 1.07 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AC Milan vs Bologna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AC Milan vs Bologna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AC Milan vs Bologna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 58% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Bologna | 18% | 5.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AC Milan or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Bologna) | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win by 2+ | 36% | 2.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
AC Milan and Bologna recent form
AC Milan
3W 2D 1L
Bologna
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AC Milan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bologna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: AC Milan at home only, Bologna away only.
AC Milan vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AC Milan 4 · draws 1 · Bologna 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Bologna | 0-3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-09-14 | AC Milan | 1-0 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-05-09 | AC Milan | 3-1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-02-27 | Bologna | 2-1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-01-27 | AC Milan | 2-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2023-08-21 | Bologna | 0-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sassuolo v Lazio — match page 2026-10-27
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
- Venezia vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese 2026-10-28
- Genoa vs Juventus 2026-10-28
- Monza v Napoli — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- AC Milan, previous: Udinese vs AC Milan prediction
- Bologna, previous: Cagliari v Bologna analysis