Chelsea vs Tottenham preview
Chelsea has a 51% probability of winning against Tottenham, who sit at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of Chelsea 2.00 and Tottenham 1.61. Both teams to score is also forecasted at 72%, alongside the over 2.5 goals probability of 72%.
Chelsea's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Tottenham has not won any of their last 6, recording 5 draws and 1 loss. Chelsea has won all of the last 6 head-to-head encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of Tottenham raises questions about their ability to compete effectively.
Why this pick: Chelsea vs Tottenham
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Chelsea 10, Tottenham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Chelsea vs Tottenham: model vs market
| Source | Chelsea | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.55.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chelsea vs Tottenham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chelsea, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.75 | 1.75 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 4.37 | 4.10 | -0.27 |
| Tottenham | 4.67 | 4.20 | -0.47 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chelsea and Tottenham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (Chelsea / Tottenham)
- 1.23 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Chelsea / Tottenham)
- 1.16 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chelsea vs Tottenham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Tottenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chelsea vs Tottenham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chelsea vs Tottenham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Tottenham | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chelsea or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Tottenham) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win by 2+ | 29% | 3.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Chelsea and Tottenham recent form
Chelsea
3W 1D 2L
Tottenham
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chelsea at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Tottenham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chelsea at home only, Tottenham away only.
Chelsea vs Tottenham head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Chelsea 6 · draws 0 · Tottenham 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Chelsea | 2-1 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2025-11-01 | Tottenham | 0-1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2025-04-03 | Chelsea | 1-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2024-12-08 | Tottenham | 3-4 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2024-05-02 | Chelsea | 2-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2023-11-06 | Tottenham | 1-4 | Chelsea | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-10-23
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arsenal v Everton — match page 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Liverpool vs Brighton 2026-10-25
- Manchester United v Bournemouth — match page 2026-10-25
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Hull City vs Brentford 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Chelsea, previous: Everton – Chelsea, 2026-10-17
- Tottenham, previous: Tottenham v Coventry analysis