Angers vs Lorient preview
Angers has a 34% probability of winning, while Lorient stands at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to the model. Angers averages 1.46 expected goals, whereas Lorient has a slightly higher average at 1.62. Despite these figures, the recent form shows Angers with two losses and a win in their last five matches, while Lorient has three wins and two losses in the same period.
Both teams have a 60% chance of scoring, and there is a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. The head-to-head record reveals a balanced contest with each team winning once in their last two encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form introduces uncertainty about Angers' ability to perform.
Why this pick: Angers vs Lorient
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Angers 10, Lorient 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Angers vs Lorient: model vs market
| Source | Angers | Draw | Lorient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 25% | 43% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Edge | 0% | -4% | +4% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lorient below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Angers vs Lorient odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lorient, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 2.57 | 2.96 | +0.39 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.30 | +0.05 |
| Lorient | 2.80 | 2.45 | -0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Angers and Lorient expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Angers / Lorient)
- 1.01 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Angers / Lorient)
- 1.41 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Angers vs Lorient score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Angers goals. Columns: Lorient goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Angers vs Lorient goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Angers vs Lorient
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angers | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Lorient | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Angers or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Lorient) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lorient win by 2+ | 22% | 4.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Angers and Lorient recent form
Angers
2W 1D 3L
Lorient
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Angers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lorient away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Angers at home only, Lorient away only.
Angers vs Lorient head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Angers 1 · draws 0 · Lorient 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Lorient | 2-0 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Angers | 2-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Brest vs Nice 2026-10-23
- Toulouse vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lens vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Monaco vs Lille 2026-10-25
- Marseille vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Rennes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-10-25
- Auxerre v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-25
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Angers, previous: Angers – Marseille, 2026-10-18
- Lorient, previous: Lorient – Monaco, 2026-10-18