Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna preview
Atletico Madrid has a 72% probability of winning against Deportivo La Coruna, who sit at 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which occurs with a 10% probability according to the model. Atletico Madrid's expected goals stand at 1.93, while Deportivo La Coruna's is significantly lower at 1.00.
Atletico Madrid's recent form shows 6 consecutive wins, while Deportivo La Coruna has 1 win in their last 5 matches. The head-to-head record favours Atletico Madrid, with 1 win and no losses against Deportivo La Coruna. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of recent competitive encounters raises questions about the reliability of these predictions.
Why this pick: Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atletico Madrid 10, Deportivo La Coruna 9). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | 77% | 16% | 8% |
| Published | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Edge | -17% | +9% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.30 | 1.23 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 5.30 | 6.10 | +0.80 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 8.00 | 12.25 | +4.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Atletico Madrid / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 1.35 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Atletico Madrid / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 0.83 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.60 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 10% | 10.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Madrid or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo La Coruna) | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win by 2+ | 37% | 2.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna recent form
Atletico Madrid
6W 0D 0L
Deportivo La Coruna
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Madrid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Deportivo La Coruna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Madrid at home only, Deportivo La Coruna away only.
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico Madrid 1 · draws 0 · Deportivo La Coruna 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0-1 | Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Atletico Madrid, previous: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid prediction
- Deportivo La Coruna, previous: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante: odds and pick