Genoa vs Venezia preview
Genoa has a 45% probability of winning against Venezia, who also has a 28% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs at a rate of 9%. The expected goals stand at 1.82 for Genoa and 1.59 for Venezia, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
Both teams to score has a 69% likelihood, while over 2.5 goals sits at 66%. Recent form shows Genoa with a record of L-W-L-W-D-L, contrasting sharply with Venezia's W-L-L-L-L-L streak. The head-to-head record is evenly split with each team winning once in their last two encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of Venezia raises questions about their competitiveness.
Why this pick: Genoa vs Venezia
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Genoa 10, Venezia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Genoa vs Venezia: model vs market
| Source | Genoa | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Published | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | -4% | -2% | +6% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Genoa vs Venezia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Genoa, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 2.13 | 2.07 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.31 | 3.37 | +0.06 |
| Venezia | 3.60 | 3.58 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Genoa and Venezia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Genoa / Venezia)
- 0.93 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Genoa / Venezia)
- 0.99 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Genoa vs Venezia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Venezia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Genoa vs Venezia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Genoa vs Venezia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Venezia | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Genoa or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Venezia) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Genoa win by 2+ | 23% | 4.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Genoa and Venezia recent form
Genoa
2W 1D 3L
Venezia
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Genoa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Venezia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Genoa at home only, Venezia away only.
Genoa vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Genoa 1 · draws 0 · Venezia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-17 | Genoa | 2-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 2024-09-21 | Venezia | 2-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Como vs Sassuolo 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 2026-10-24
- Inter v Fiorentina — match page 2026-10-25
- Atalanta vs Frosinone — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lecce vs Juventus — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Udinese vs AC Milan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Genoa, previous: Roma v Genoa analysis
- Venezia, previous: Venezia v Napoli analysis