Como vs Sassuolo preview
Como has a 63% probability of winning against Sassuolo, who sit at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.68 for Como compared to 1.82 for Sassuolo. Como's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Sassuolo has only 1 win in the same period.
Como has won 2 of their last 3 encounters with Sassuolo, who have managed just 1 win. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 83%, and both teams to score stands at 79%. The confidence grade for this match is A. The disparity in recent form raises questions about Sassuolo's ability to compete effectively.
Why this pick: Como vs Sassuolo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Como 10, Sassuolo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Como vs Sassuolo: model vs market
| Source | Como | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Published | 63% | 20% | 16% |
| Edge | -11% | 0% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Como vs Sassuolo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Como, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.62 | 4.63 | +0.00 |
| Sassuolo | 7.13 | 6.90 | -0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Como and Sassuolo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.51
- Attack rating (Como / Sassuolo)
- 1.61 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Como / Sassuolo)
- 1.19 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Como vs Sassuolo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Como goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Como vs Sassuolo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Como vs Sassuolo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| Sassuolo | 16% | 6.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.26 |
| No | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Como or draw) | 84% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Sassuolo) | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Como and Sassuolo recent form
Como
3W 1D 2L
Sassuolo
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Como at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sassuolo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Como at home only, Sassuolo away only.
Como vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Como 2 · draws 0 · Sassuolo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Sassuolo | 2-1 | Como | Serie A |
| 2025-11-28 | Como | 2-0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2025-09-24 | Como | 3-0 | Sassuolo | Coppa Italia |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Torino vs Monza 2026-10-23
- Cagliari v Bologna — match page 2026-10-24
- Napoli vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Como, previous: Fiorentina vs Como prediction
- Sassuolo, previous: Frosinone – Sassuolo, 2026-10-16