RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg preview
RasenBallsport Leipzig has a 64% probability of winning against SV Elversberg, who sit at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Leipzig's expected goals stand at 2.47, while Elversberg's are at 1.77. The figures suggest a strong attacking performance from Leipzig, but do not guarantee a straightforward victory.
Both teams to score has a 75% likelihood, and over 2.5 goals is at 76%. Leipzig's recent form shows three wins and three losses in their last six matches, contrasting with Elversberg's three wins, two losses, and one draw. The confidence grade is B, indicating some uncertainty, which is the largest source of doubt in this analysis.
Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, SV Elversberg 6). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg: model vs market
| Source | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Published | 64% | 18% | 17% |
| Edge | -23% | +6% | +17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.77.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1.30 | 1.34 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 5.80 | 5.64 | -0.16 |
| SV Elversberg | 8.25 | 7.25 | -1.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.24
- Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / SV Elversberg)
- 1.36 / 1.27
- Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / SV Elversberg)
- 0.97 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: SV Elversberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 64% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.46 | |
| SV Elversberg | 17% | 5.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.32 |
| No | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or SV Elversberg) | 36% | 2.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+ | 29% | 3.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg recent form
RasenBallsport Leipzig
3W 0D 3L
SV Elversberg
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RasenBallsport Leipzig at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
SV Elversberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: RasenBallsport Leipzig at home only, SV Elversberg away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-10-23
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin 2026-10-24
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, previous: Bayern Munich v RasenBallsport Leipzig analysis
- SV Elversberg, previous: SV Elversberg v Augsburg analysis