Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt preview
Borussia Dortmund has a 63% probability of winning against Eintracht Frankfurt, who sit at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance, while the model predicts 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score. Dortmund's expected goals stand at 2.71, compared to Frankfurt's 1.42.
Dortmund's recent form shows 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Frankfurt has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. In their last 7 encounters, Dortmund has 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss against Frankfurt. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of a clear recent advantage for either side raises questions.
Why this pick: Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia Dortmund 10, Eintracht Frankfurt 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt: model vs market
| Source | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Published | 63% | 19% | 17% |
| Edge | -7% | +3% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.36 | 1.44 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.08 | -0.42 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 7.50 | 5.75 | -1.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.13
- Attack rating (Borussia Dortmund / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 1.19 / 1.36
- Defence rating (Borussia Dortmund / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 0.72 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 17% | 5.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.42 |
| No | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Borussia Dortmund or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Eintracht Frankfurt) | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win by 2+ | 39% | 2.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt recent form
Borussia Dortmund
3W 2D 1L
Eintracht Frankfurt
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Borussia Dortmund at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eintracht Frankfurt away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund at home only, Eintracht Frankfurt away only.
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 3 · draws 3 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2026-01-09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-3 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-28 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-1 | Borussia Dortmund | DFB Pokal |
| 2025-01-17 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-0 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2024-08-24 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-17 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-29 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-3 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-10-23
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin 2026-10-24
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Borussia Dortmund, previous: Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-10-17
- Eintracht Frankfurt, previous: Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne analysis