Why this pick: Genoa vs Juventus
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Genoa 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Genoa vs Juventus: model vs market
| Source | Genoa | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 28% | 59% |
| Market | 17% | 25% | 57% |
| Published | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Genoa vs Juventus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 5.46 | 5.43 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.73 | -0.12 |
| Juventus | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Genoa and Juventus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Genoa / Juventus)
- 0.93 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Genoa / Juventus)
- 0.99 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Genoa vs Juventus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Genoa vs Juventus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Genoa vs Juventus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 16% | 6.07 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Juventus | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Genoa or draw) | 42% | 2.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventus) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 35% | 2.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Genoa and Juventus recent form
Genoa
2W 1D 3L
Juventus
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Genoa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Genoa at home only, Juventus away only.
Genoa vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Genoa 0 · draws 2 · Juventus 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Juventus | 2-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2025-08-31 | Genoa | 0-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2025-03-29 | Juventus | 1-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2024-09-28 | Genoa | 0-3 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2024-03-17 | Juventus | 0-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2023-12-15 | Genoa | 1-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
- AC Milan vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Venezia vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese 2026-10-28
- Monza v Napoli — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Genoa, previous: Genoa – Venezia, 2026-10-25
- Juventus, previous: Lecce – Juventus, 2026-10-25