Sunderland vs Leeds preview
Sunderland has a 37% probability of winning against Leeds, who sit slightly behind at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Sunderland, with a 9% chance. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% probability for over 2.5 goals. Sunderland's expected goals stand at 1.92, while Leeds has 1.58.
Recent form shows Sunderland with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Leeds has only one win in their last six, recording two draws and three losses. Sunderland has won once and drawn once in their last two encounters with Leeds, who have yet to secure a win against them. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of both teams raises questions.
Why this pick: Sunderland vs Leeds
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sunderland 10, Leeds 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sunderland vs Leeds: model vs market
| Source | Sunderland | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Published | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | +14% | -5% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sunderland below the model: +13.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.02, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sunderland vs Leeds odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sunderland, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 2.62 | 2.89 | +0.27 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.05 |
| Leeds | 2.50 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sunderland and Leeds expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Sunderland / Leeds)
- 1.02 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Sunderland / Leeds)
- 1.16 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sunderland vs Leeds score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Leeds goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sunderland vs Leeds goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sunderland vs Leeds
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sunderland | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Leeds | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sunderland or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Leeds) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sunderland win by 2+ | 28% | 3.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sunderland and Leeds recent form
Sunderland
2W 0D 4L
Leeds
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sunderland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leeds away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sunderland at home only, Leeds away only.
Sunderland vs Leeds head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sunderland 1 · draws 1 · Leeds 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Leeds | 0-1 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 2025-12-28 | Sunderland | 1-1 | Leeds | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arsenal v Everton — match page 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chelsea vs Tottenham 2026-10-24
- Liverpool vs Brighton 2026-10-25
- Manchester United v Bournemouth — match page 2026-10-25
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Hull City vs Brentford 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sunderland, previous: Bournemouth v Sunderland analysis
- Leeds, previous: Leeds vs Manchester United prediction