Augsburg vs Union Berlin preview
Augsburg has a 51% probability of winning against Union Berlin, who sit at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.84 for Augsburg and 1.83 for Union Berlin. Augsburg's recent form shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while Union Berlin has 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses.
Both teams to score stands at 79%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is 81%. Despite the confidence grade of A, the head-to-head record shows a balanced competition, with each team claiming 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 6 encounters. The variability in recent performances raises questions about the outcome.
Why this pick: Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Augsburg 10, Union Berlin 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin: model vs market
| Source | Augsburg | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Published | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Edge | +2% | -3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 1.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Augsburg below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Augsburg, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 1.75 | 1.88 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 3.88 | -0.22 |
| Union Berlin | 4.30 | 3.69 | -0.61 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Augsburg and Union Berlin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.67
- Attack rating (Augsburg / Union Berlin)
- 1.26 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Augsburg / Union Berlin)
- 1.35 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Augsburg goals. Columns: Union Berlin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Augsburg vs Union Berlin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Augsburg | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Union Berlin | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Augsburg or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Union Berlin) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Augsburg win by 2+ | 35% | 2.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Augsburg and Union Berlin recent form
Augsburg
2W 2D 2L
Union Berlin
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Augsburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
Union Berlin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 5.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Augsburg at home only, Union Berlin away only.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Augsburg 2 · draws 2 · Union Berlin 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Union Berlin | 4-0 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2026-01-15 | Augsburg | 1-1 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2025-05-17 | Augsburg | 1-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2025-01-15 | Union Berlin | 0-2 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-12 | Augsburg | 2-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2023-11-25 | Union Berlin | 1-1 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-10-23
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Augsburg, previous: SV Elversberg v Augsburg analysis
- Union Berlin, previous: Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-10-17