Updated

The site

About

What this site is, what it is not, and who pays for it.

What BCCFC is

A football predictions site built on one statistical model. Team ratings are estimated from rolling match history — expected goals where we have them, goals where we do not — and turned into a full scoreline grid for each fixture; every market on the site is read off that grid, and the 1X2 number is then blended with the de-vigged market price. There is no panel of tipsters, no insider source, and no fixture where somebody overrides the model by hand.

The method is written out in full on the methodology page, down to the equations on the mathematics page, and it was tested on a season it had not seen before any of this went live — that measurement, including the league where it failed our own calibration tolerance, is on the accuracy page.

What it is not

  • Not a tipping service. Every fixture carries a probability, not a recommendation. A 62% pick is a claim about how often this happens, and it includes the nearly four times in ten it does not.
  • No accounts, no paid tier, no newsletter. Nothing here is behind a login and nothing is for sale to you.
  • No app, no Telegram channel, no social accounts. If you find one using this name, it is not us.
  • Not a company page. We do not publish a legal entity, a registered address, a founding year or a team — because there is nothing we could put behind those words today that would be true. If that changes, it will appear on this page and not in a press release.

The disclosure, and what we do about the conflict it creates.

This site earns from bookmaker affiliate links. When you use a betting button here you go through a redirect we operate and on to a bookmaker; if you open an account, we are paid for that. That is the entire commercial relationship, and you should read everything on the site knowing it exists.

It creates an obvious pull toward telling you to bet more, so here is what the site does about it — all of it checkable by looking at the pages:

  • The model runs first and does not know about any of it. Probabilities are computed from results and prices in a pipeline that has no notion of a commercial partner. No number moves because of a link.
  • No bookmaker is named or badged anywhere on the site. The prices in our tables are the best price we recorded across every book we collect from — not one partner’s price dressed as a market.
  • The betting button is withheld where our own model disagrees with the price. On fixture tables it appears only on rows where our probability is at least as high as the market’s implied one. Where our number says the price is bad, there is no button — which costs us clicks, and is the point.
  • Nothing here promises a win. We do not run “sure thing” copy, guaranteed-return claims or accumulator bankers, and the accuracy page explains at length why nobody honest can.

How to judge us

Not by an about page. Read the method, check the record, and notice which numbers we publish when they are unflattering — the skipped fixtures in the backtest, the league outside tolerance, the competitions and clubs that show no accuracy block at all because they have not reached 100 settled predictions yet. A site that only reports its good weeks is easy to spot once you know to look.