Where the model disagrees with the market
16 fixtures — every row opens the full prediction.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Crystal PalaceOur prob 38%Best odds 3.02 | +17% | 50% | 33% | A | 3.02 | Bet Now |
| Sunderland vs LeedsPremier LeagueA | Premier League | SunderlandOur prob 36%Best odds 3.02 | +14% | 47% | 33% | A | 3.02 | Bet Now |
| Brest vs NiceLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | BrestOur prob 46%Best odds 2.31 | +12% | 55% | 43% | A | 2.31 | Bet Now |
| Hoffenheim vs Bayer LeverkusenBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayer LeverkusenOur prob 44%Best odds 2.39 | +11% | 52% | 41% | A | 2.39 | Bet Now |
| Napoli vs RomaSerie AA | Serie A | RomaOur prob 41%Best odds 2.62 | +10% | 48% | 38% | A | 2.62 | Bet Now |
| Barcelona vs Real MadridLa LigaA | La Liga | BarcelonaOur prob 61%Best odds 1.65 | +9% | 68% | 59% | A | 1.65 | Bet Now |
| Mainz 05 vs Werder BremenBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Mainz 05Our prob 59%Best odds 1.73 | +9% | 66% | 57% | A | 1.73 | Bet Now |
| Alaves vs MalagaLa LigaA | La Liga | AlavesOur prob 56%Best odds 1.84 | +7% | 61% | 54% | A | 1.84 | Bet Now |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SVBundesligaB | Bundesliga | SC Paderborn 07Our prob 42%Best odds 2.40 | +7% | 48% | 41% | B | 2.40 | Bet Now |
| Rayo Vallecano vs ElcheLa LigaA | La Liga | Rayo VallecanoOur prob 56%Best odds 1.81 | +7% | 61% | 54% | A | 1.81 | Bet Now |
| Lecce vs JuventusSerie AA | Serie A | JuventusOur prob 67%Best odds 1.50 | +6% | 72% | 66% | A | 1.50 | Bet Now |
| Athletic Club vs GetafeLa LigaA | La Liga | Athletic ClubOur prob 60%Best odds 1.66 | +5% | 63% | 59% | A | 1.66 | Bet Now |
| Rennes vs StrasbourgLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | RennesOur prob 56%Best odds 1.79 | +4% | 59% | 55% | A | 1.79 | Bet Now |
| Angers vs LorientLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LorientOur prob 40%Best odds 2.52 | +4% | 43% | 39% | A | 2.52 | Bet Now |
| Augsburg vs Union BerlinBundesligaA | Bundesliga | AugsburgOur prob 51%Best odds 1.96 | +3% | 53% | 50% | A | 1.96 | Bet Now |
| Monaco vs LilleLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | MonacoOur prob 45%Best odds 2.22 | +2% | 47% | 45% | A | 2.22 | Bet Now |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
We only record bookmaker prices for the 1X2 market, so every row here is a 1X2 selection — an edge on any other market would be invented rather than measured. xG-backed picks (grade A or B) rank first, then by edge — so a grade C row can sit below smaller edges, because a number the model produced without an xG record behind either club is a weaker claim than the same number with one. Prices older than 24 hours are dropped rather than shown stale; the newest snapshot behind this page was taken at 16:10 UTC on 21 October 2026.
What an edge is, and what it is not
Edge is the gap between two numbers we both publish: our model’s probability for a selection, and the same probability implied by the best recorded price once the bookmaker’s margin is stripped out. A 2-point gap is the smallest we treat as signal rather than rounding.
An edge is a statement about price, not about the result. A pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low — the claim is that the price is wrong, not that the outcome is certain. The grade next to each match says how much of that claim rests on expected goals: A means both clubs have an xG-backed record behind their rating, B one of them, C neither.