FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 preview
FC Cologne has a 45% probability of winning against FC Schalke 04, while Schalke's chances stand at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Despite Cologne's higher expected goals of 1.60 compared to Schalke's 1.23, this does not guarantee a straightforward victory.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Cologne recording L-W-L-D-L-W and Schalke at L-L-D-W-D-L. The model suggests a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood of both teams scoring. The confidence grade is B, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Why this pick: FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, FC Schalke 04 6). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04: model vs market
| Source | FC Cologne | Draw | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | -8% | +7% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cologne, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne | 2.20 | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.92 | +0.28 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 3.08 | 3.27 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cologne and FC Schalke 04 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (FC Cologne / FC Schalke 04)
- 1.12 / 0.82
- Defence rating (FC Cologne / FC Schalke 04)
- 1.04 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: FC Schalke 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cologne or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Schalke 04) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cologne win by 2+ | 20% | 4.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Cologne and FC Schalke 04 recent form
FC Cologne
2W 1D 3L
FC Schalke 04
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cologne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
FC Schalke 04 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cologne at home only, FC Schalke 04 away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-10-23
- Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-24
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin 2026-10-24
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- FC Cologne, previous: Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne analysis
- FC Schalke 04, previous: FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05: odds and pick