Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen preview
Mainz 05 has a 59% probability of winning against Werder Bremen, who sit at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Mainz 05's expected goals stand at 2.96, while Werder Bremen's is significantly lower at 1.29. This indicates a potential gap in attacking efficiency, yet it does not confirm a straightforward victory for Mainz 05.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Mainz 05 recording W-L-W-L-W-D and Werder Bremen at D-D-W-D-W-L. In their last 6 encounters, Mainz 05 has 1 win, 1 draw, and Werder Bremen has 4 wins. The confidence grade is A, but the head-to-head record raises questions about Mainz's ability to secure the win.
Why this pick: Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Mainz 05 10, Werder Bremen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: model vs market
| Source | Mainz 05 | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Edge | +9% | -3% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mainz 05 below the model: +8.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 1.79 | 1.67 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.17 | +0.17 |
| Werder Bremen | 4.10 | 4.54 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.25
- Attack rating (Mainz 05 / Werder Bremen)
- 1.52 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Mainz 05 / Werder Bremen)
- 0.98 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mainz 05 goals. Columns: Werder Bremen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mainz 05 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Werder Bremen | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mainz 05 or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Werder Bremen) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win by 2+ | 46% | 2.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen recent form
Mainz 05
3W 1D 2L
Werder Bremen
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mainz 05 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Werder Bremen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mainz 05 at home only, Werder Bremen away only.
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Mainz 05 1 · draws 1 · Werder Bremen 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Werder Bremen | 0-2 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-01 | Mainz 05 | 1-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-01-31 | Werder Bremen | 1-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2024-09-15 | Mainz 05 | 1-2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-03 | Mainz 05 | 0-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-09-02 | Werder Bremen | 4-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-10-23
- Augsburg vs Union Berlin 2026-10-24
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-24
- FC Cologne v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Mainz 05, previous: FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05: odds and pick
- Werder Bremen, previous: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: odds and pick