Arsenal vs Everton preview
Arsenal has a 66% probability of winning against Everton, who sit at 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Arsenal's expected goals stand at 2.11, while Everton's is 1.09. This indicates a significant disparity in offensive output.
Arsenal's recent form shows 5 wins and 1 loss, contrasting with Everton's 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches. Arsenal has won 4 of the last 6 encounters between these teams, with Everton failing to secure a victory. The confidence grade for this match is A, yet the lack of recent head-to-head success for Everton raises questions about their ability to compete.
Why this pick: Arsenal vs Everton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Everton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Arsenal vs Everton: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| Published | 66% | 21% | 12% |
| Edge | -7% | +1% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Arsenal vs Everton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.37 | 1.40 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.55 | -0.15 |
| Everton | 7.00 | 8.52 | +1.52 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arsenal and Everton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (Arsenal / Everton)
- 1.45 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Arsenal / Everton)
- 0.76 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal vs Everton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Everton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal vs Everton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal vs Everton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Everton | 12% | 8.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Everton) | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 40% | 2.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Arsenal and Everton recent form
Arsenal
5W 0D 1L
Everton
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Everton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal at home only, Everton away only.
Arsenal vs Everton head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Arsenal 4 · draws 2 · Everton 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2025-12-20 | Everton | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-04-05 | Everton | 1-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-12-14 | Arsenal | 0-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2024-05-19 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-09-17 | Everton | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-10-23
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Arsenal, previous: Nottingham Forest – Arsenal, 2026-10-18
- Everton, previous: Everton – Chelsea, 2026-10-17