Sassuolo vs Lazio preview
Sassuolo has a 36% chance of winning, while Lazio stands at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. Sassuolo's expected goals are 1.89 compared to Lazio's 1.59.
Both teams have shown contrasting recent form, with Sassuolo recording L-D-L-W-D-D, while Lazio has achieved W-W-W-D-W-W. The model indicates a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance for both teams to score. Despite the confidence grade being A, the recent form of both teams raises questions about the outcome.
Why this pick: Sassuolo vs Lazio
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sassuolo 10, Lazio 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: model vs market
| Source | Sassuolo | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 39% |
| Published | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Edge | +9% | -2% | -8% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sassuolo vs Lazio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lazio, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 2.92 | 2.80 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.44 | +0.10 |
| Lazio | 2.48 | 2.46 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sassuolo and Lazio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Sassuolo / Lazio)
- 1.31 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Sassuolo / Lazio)
- 1.26 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sassuolo vs Lazio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sassuolo goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sassuolo vs Lazio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sassuolo vs Lazio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sassuolo | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Lazio | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sassuolo or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Lazio) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win by 2+ | 16% | 6.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sassuolo and Lazio recent form
Sassuolo
1W 3D 2L
Lazio
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sassuolo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lazio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sassuolo at home only, Lazio away only.
Sassuolo vs Lazio head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Sassuolo 1 · draws 1 · Lazio 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Lazio | 2-1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2025-09-14 | Sassuolo | 1-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-05-26 | Lazio | 1-1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2023-10-21 | Sassuolo | 0-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Sassuolo, previous: Como v Sassuolo analysis
- Lazio, previous: Lazio – Parma Calcio 1913, 2026-10-24