Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United preview
Crystal Palace has a 39% probability of winning, while Newcastle United sits at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance of occurring. Crystal Palace's expected goals stand at 2.13 compared to Newcastle United's 1.65. These figures suggest a competitive match, but they do not guarantee a specific outcome.
Both teams to score has a 73% likelihood, and there is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored. Recent form shows Crystal Palace with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Newcastle United has 2 wins as well. The head-to-head record indicates Crystal Palace has 2 wins, 1 draw, and Newcastle United has 3 wins in their last 6 encounters, leaving uncertainty about how recent performances will influence this match.
Why this pick: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Crystal Palace 10, Newcastle United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: model vs market
| Source | Crystal Palace | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 22% | 27% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Published | 38% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | +17% | -4% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.65.
- The market prices Crystal Palace below the model: +16.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.02, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Crystal Palace, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 2.59 | 2.87 | +0.28 |
| Draw | 3.67 | 3.60 | -0.07 |
| Newcastle United | 2.51 | 2.38 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.78
- Attack rating (Crystal Palace / Newcastle United)
- 1.22 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Crystal Palace / Newcastle United)
- 1.32 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crystal Palace goals. Columns: Newcastle United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 38% | 2.66 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Newcastle United | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crystal Palace or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Newcastle United) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Crystal Palace win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United recent form
Crystal Palace
2W 1D 3L
Newcastle United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crystal Palace at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Newcastle United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Crystal Palace at home only, Newcastle United away only.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Crystal Palace 2 · draws 1 · Newcastle United 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Crystal Palace | 2-1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2026-01-04 | Newcastle United | 2-0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2025-04-16 | Newcastle United | 5-0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2024-11-30 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2024-04-24 | Crystal Palace | 2-0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2023-10-21 | Newcastle United | 4-0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arsenal v Everton — match page 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chelsea vs Tottenham 2026-10-24
- Liverpool vs Brighton 2026-10-25
- Manchester United v Bournemouth — match page 2026-10-25
- Hull City vs Brentford 2026-10-25
- Sunderland v Leeds — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Crystal Palace, previous: Brighton vs Crystal Palace: odds and pick
- Newcastle United, previous: Newcastle United – Aston Villa, 2026-10-17