Upcoming Premier League fixtures
10 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 50 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich vs Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Nottingham ForestOur prob 42%Best odds 2.44 | -2% | 40% | 42% | A | 2.44 |
| Aston Villa vs Manchester CityPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Manchester CityOur prob 50%Best odds 1.76 | -24% | 31% | 56% | A | 1.76 |
| Arsenal vs EvertonPremier LeagueA | Premier League | ArsenalOur prob 66%Best odds 1.43 | -10% | 58% | 68% | A | 1.43 |
| Coventry vs FulhamPremier LeagueA | Premier League | FulhamOur prob 39%Best odds 2.41 | -8% | 33% | 41% | A | 2.41 |
| Chelsea vs TottenhamPremier LeagueA | Premier League | ChelseaOur prob 53%Best odds 1.81 | -6% | 48% | 54% | A | 1.81 |
| Liverpool vs BrightonPremier LeagueA | Premier League | LiverpoolOur prob 43%Best odds 2.19 | -7% | 38% | 45% | A | 2.19 |
| Manchester United vs BournemouthPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Manchester UnitedOur prob 45%Best odds 1.91 | -25% | 26% | 51% | A | 1.91 |
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Crystal PalaceOur prob 38%Best odds 3.02 | +17% | 50% | 33% | A | 3.02 |
| Hull City vs BrentfordPremier LeagueA | Premier League | BrentfordOur prob 51%Best odds 1.84 | -13% | 40% | 54% | A | 1.84 |
| Sunderland vs LeedsPremier LeagueA | Premier League | SunderlandOur prob 36%Best odds 3.02 | +14% | 47% | 33% | A | 3.02 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Premier League table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City |
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 21 | |
| 2 |  Arsenal |
7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 18 | |
| 3 |  Brighton |
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Chelsea |
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 | |
| 6 |  Brentford |
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Leeds |
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Everton |
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Hull City |
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Ipswich |
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Newcastle United |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Aston Villa |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Manchester United |
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | |
| 14 |  Crystal Palace |
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Bournemouth |
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 | |
| 16 |  Tottenham |
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Coventry |
7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 | |
| 18 |  Fulham |
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 | |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest |
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | |
| 20 |  Sunderland |
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Premier League trends
How Premier League matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 70 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (380 played matches).
Top Premier League teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.06
- Attack
- 2.09
- Defence
- 1.03
- Net rating
- +1.02
- Attack
- 2.42
- Defence
- 1.40
- Net rating
- +0.98
- Attack
- 2.19
- Defence
- 1.20
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Premier League
From the Premier League scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
-
E. HaalandManchester City
8 G 0 A
-
João PedroChelsea
5 G 3 A
-
A. IsakLiverpool
5 G 0 A
-
R. CherkiManchester City
4 G 2 A
-
M. RogersChelsea
4 G 1 A
-
M. TavernierBournemouth
4 G 0 A
-
B. MbeumoManchester United
4 G 0 A
-
P. GroßBrighton
3 G 4 A
Recent Premier League results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham vs CoventryOur pick Tottenham · 58% | Tottenham to win | 58% | 3–1 | Correct | |
| Nottingham Forest vs ArsenalOur pick Arsenal · 58% | Arsenal to win | 58% | 0–1 | Correct | |
| Leeds vs Manchester UnitedOur pick Leeds · 41% | Leeds to win | 41% | 1–1 | Missed | |
| Brighton vs Crystal PalaceOur pick Brighton · 66% | Brighton to win | 66% | 5–0 | Correct | |
| Bournemouth vs SunderlandOur pick Bournemouth · 49% | Bournemouth to win | 49% | 2–0 | Correct | |
| Newcastle United vs Aston VillaOur pick Aston Villa · 37% | Aston Villa to win | 37% | 0–1 | Correct |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.