Roma vs Cagliari preview
Roma has a 70% probability of winning against Cagliari, who sit at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, with an 8% chance. Roma's expected goals are 3.03, while Cagliari's are 1.26. The model predicts 80% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
Recent form shows Roma with three wins, two draws, and one loss, while Cagliari has two wins, one draw, and three losses. In their last six meetings, Roma has won 4 times, drawn once, and lost once. The confidence grade is A, but the disparity in expected goals raises questions about Cagliari's ability to compete effectively.
Why this pick: Roma vs Cagliari
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Roma 10, Cagliari 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Roma vs Cagliari: model vs market
| Source | Roma | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| Market | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Published | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Edge | +2% | -3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.03 vs 1.26.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Roma vs Cagliari odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roma, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 1.35 | 1.36 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.88 | 4.90 | +0.03 |
| Cagliari | 9.18 | 9.00 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Roma and Cagliari expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.29
- Attack rating (Roma / Cagliari)
- 1.79 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Roma / Cagliari)
- 0.96 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Roma vs Cagliari score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Roma vs Cagliari goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Roma vs Cagliari
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 70% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.36 | |
| Cagliari | 11% | 9.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Roma or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Cagliari) | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win by 2+ | 54% | 1.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Roma and Cagliari recent form
Roma
3W 2D 1L
Cagliari
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Roma at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cagliari away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Roma at home only, Cagliari away only.
Roma vs Cagliari head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Roma 4 · draws 1 · Cagliari 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Roma | 2-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-12-07 | Cagliari | 1-0 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2025-03-16 | Roma | 1-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-08-18 | Cagliari | 0-0 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-02-05 | Roma | 4-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2023-10-08 | Cagliari | 1-4 | Roma | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sassuolo v Lazio — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Roma, previous: Napoli vs Roma: odds and pick
- Cagliari, previous: Cagliari v Bologna analysis