Sevilla vs Osasuna preview
Sevilla has a 48% probability of winning against Osasuna, who has a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. Sevilla's expected goals stand at 1.72, compared to Osasuna's 1.37. The figures suggest Sevilla may have an advantage, but the recent form shows Sevilla with two wins in their last six matches, while Osasuna has only one win in the same period.
Both teams to score has a 64% probability, and there is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals. Sevilla's recent form includes a sequence of L-D-L-W-W-D, while Osasuna's recent results are W-L-D-L-L-L. The head-to-head record shows Sevilla with 1 win, Osasuna with 2 wins, and 3 draws in their last 6 encounters, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Why this pick: Sevilla vs Osasuna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sevilla 10, Osasuna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: model vs market
| Source | Sevilla | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Published | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sevilla vs Osasuna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sevilla, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 1.80 | 1.94 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.40 | +0.20 |
| Osasuna | 3.80 | 4.05 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sevilla and Osasuna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Sevilla / Osasuna)
- 0.94 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Sevilla / Osasuna)
- 1.10 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sevilla vs Osasuna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sevilla goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sevilla vs Osasuna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sevilla vs Osasuna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sevilla | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Osasuna | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sevilla or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Osasuna) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sevilla win by 2+ | 26% | 3.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sevilla and Osasuna recent form
Sevilla
2W 2D 2L
Osasuna
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sevilla at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Osasuna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sevilla at home only, Osasuna away only.
Sevilla vs Osasuna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sevilla 1 · draws 3 · Osasuna 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Osasuna | 2-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-11-08 | Sevilla | 1-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2025-04-24 | Osasuna | 1-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2024-12-02 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2024-01-28 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2023-09-23 | Osasuna | 0-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche 2026-10-24
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Valencia vs Villarreal 2026-10-24
- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Athletic Club vs Getafe 2026-10-25
- Celta Vigo vs Real Betis 2026-10-25
- Real Sociedad v Levante — match page 2026-10-25
- Barcelona v Real Madrid — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sevilla, previous: Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction
- Osasuna, previous: Osasuna vs Racing Santander: odds and pick