Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
9 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest vs NiceLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | BrestOur prob 46%Best odds 2.31 | +12% | 55% | 43% | A | 2.31 |
| Toulouse vs Estac TroyesLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | ToulouseOur prob 55%Best odds 1.71 | -10% | 48% | 57% | A | 1.71 |
| Lens vs Paris FCLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LensOur prob 40%Best odds 2.40 | -2% | 38% | 40% | A | 2.40 |
| Monaco vs LilleLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | MonacoOur prob 45%Best odds 2.22 | +2% | 47% | 45% | A | 2.22 |
| Angers vs LorientLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LorientOur prob 40%Best odds 2.52 | +4% | 43% | 39% | A | 2.52 |
| Marseille vs Le HavreLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | MarseilleOur prob 58%Best odds 1.61 | -12% | 49% | 60% | A | 1.61 |
| Rennes vs StrasbourgLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | RennesOur prob 56%Best odds 1.79 | +4% | 59% | 55% | A | 1.79 |
| Auxerre vs Le MansLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | AuxerreOur prob 44%Best odds 2.23 | -4% | 41% | 45% | A | 2.23 |
| Paris Saint Germain vs LyonLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Paris Saint GermainOur prob 64%Best odds 1.47 | -10% | 56% | 66% | A | 1.47 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Ligue 1 table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 | |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 | |
| 3 |  Paris FC |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 14 | |
| 4 |  Lille |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Monaco |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Rennes |
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Lorient |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Lens |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Marseille |
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Brest |
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Toulouse |
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | |
| 12 |  Auxerre |
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 | |
| 13 |  Nice |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Strasbourg |
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Angers |
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Le Mans |
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes |
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Le Havre |
7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Ligue 1 trends
How Ligue 1 matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 63 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (306 played matches).
Top Ligue 1 teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.02
- Attack
- 2.57
- Defence
- 1.55
- Net rating
- +0.59
- Attack
- 1.82
- Defence
- 1.23
- Net rating
- +0.42
- Attack
- 1.77
- Defence
- 1.35
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Ligue 1
From the Ligue 1 scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
-
E. LepaulRennes
7 G 0 A
-
L. SinayokoParis FC
6 G 3 A
-
C. TengstedtToulouse
5 G 1 A
-
A. GouiriMarseille
5 G 1 A
-
Ferran TorresParis Saint Germain
4 G 1 A
-
L. MafoutaLe Mans
4 G 1 A
-
K. DoumbiaBrest
4 G 1 A
-
Paris Josua BrunnerMonaco
4 G 0 A
Recent Ligue 1 results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon vs NiceOur pick Lyon · 54% | Lyon to win | 54% | 2–1 | Correct | |
| Paris FC vs RennesOur pick Paris FC · 48% | Paris FC to win | 48% | 4–3 | Correct | |
| Le Havre vs AuxerreOur pick Le Havre · 42% | Le Havre to win | 42% | 1–3 | Missed | |
| Lorient vs MonacoOur pick Monaco · 44% | Monaco to win | 44% | 1–0 | Missed | |
| Angers vs MarseilleOur pick Marseille · 44% | Marseille to win | 44% | 2–5 | Correct | |
| Estac Troyes vs LensOur pick Lens · 50% | Lens to win | 50% | 1–3 | Correct |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.